Donald Trump’s Election Odds Hit New High in Pivotal Swing State

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris have hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania, according to an online betting platform.
Polymarket, funded partly by early Trump backer Peter Thiel, gave the former president a 56 percent chance of securing victory in the Keystone State as of Monday. In comparison, Harris was given a 45 percent chance of winning.
Trump’s odds on Monday were his best against the Democratic ticket since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris on July 21. The former president’s odds peaked one week earlier when he was given a 67 percent chance of defeating Biden.
The odds of either Trump or Harris winning were even on Polymarket as recently as October 2. The former president’s chances shot up due to a recent influx of bets on him winning, as the platform’s odds are dictated by so-called “collective wisdom” rather than outside factors like polling data.
On Monday, Harris remained a slight favorite on the platform in at least two other critical swing states, with the vice president leading Trump by 53 percent to 48 percent in Michigan and 52 percent to 49 percent in Wisconsin.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
Presidential election polling in Pennsylvania has not shifted significantly in recent days, with the race appearing to be in a dead heat in most surveys. An average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading by 0.6 percent as of Monday.
Pennsylvania is one of at least seven battleground states considered pivotal to this year’s election outcome. In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Trump in the state, while Trump bested former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
In the other six states, polling averages on Monday showed Harris had slight leads over Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The former president had slight leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Polymarket is currently predicting that Trump will defeat Harris by winning the Electoral College in November. The former president’s odds went from even less than a week ago to becoming a 54 to 46 percent favorite on Monday. Harris has a 71 percent to 28 percent advantage in the popular vote.
Several other online betting platforms also offer odds on the presidential election. Nearly all bookmakers show that Harris and Trump have roughly even chances of winning the White House in November.
While betting on elections was technically illegal for many years in the United States, a federal appeals court last week sided with betting platform Kalshi in a lawsuit that effectively legalized the practice.